The coral reef crisis: The critical importance of <350 ppm CO₂     

J.E.N. Veron  O. Hoegh-Guldberg  C.R.C. Sheppard  M.G. Stafford-Smith 《Marine pollution bulletin》2009,58(10):1428-1436

Temperature-induced mass coral bleaching causing mortality on a wide geographic scale started when atmospheric CO₂ levels exceeded ∼320 ppm. When CO₂ levels reached ∼340 ppm, sporadic but highly destructive mass bleaching occurred in most reefs world-wide, often associated with El Niño events. Recovery was dependent on the vulnerability of individual reef areas and on the reef’s previous history and resilience. At today’s level of ∼387 ppm, allowing a lag-time of 10 years for sea temperatures to respond, most reefs world-wide are committed to an irreversible decline. Mass bleaching will in future become annual, departing from the 4 to 7 years return-time of El Niño events. Bleaching will be exacerbated by the effects of degraded water-quality and increased severe weather events. In addition, the progressive onset of ocean acidification will cause reduction of coral growth and retardation of the growth of high magnesium calcite-secreting coralline algae. If CO₂ levels are allowed to reach 450 ppm (due to occur by 2030-2040 at the current rates), reefs will be in rapid and terminal decline world-wide from multiple synergies arising from mass bleaching, ocean acidification, and other environmental impacts. Damage to shallow reef communities will become extensive with consequent reduction of biodiversity followed by extinctions. Reefs will cease to be large-scale nursery grounds for fish and will cease to have most of their current value to humanity. There will be knock-on effects to ecosystems associated with reefs, and to other pelagic and benthic ecosystems. Should CO₂ levels reach 600 ppm reefs will be eroding geological structures with populations of surviving biota restricted to refuges. Domino effects will follow, affecting many other marine ecosystems. This is likely to have been the path of great mass extinctions of the past, adding to the case that anthropogenic CO₂ emissions could trigger the Earth’s sixth mass extinction.  相似文献   

Paleolimnological records of recent glacier recession in the Rwenzori Mountains,Uganda-D. R. Congo     

J. Russell  H. Eggermont  R. Taylor  D. Verschuren 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2009,41(2):253-271

The status of tropical glaciers is enormously important to our understanding of past, present, and future climate change, yet lack of continuous quantitative records of alpine glacier extent on the highest mountains of tropical East Africa prior to the 20th century has left the timing and drivers of recent glacier recession in the region equivocal. Here we investigate recent changes (the last 150–700 years) in lacustrine sedimentation, glacier extent, and biogeochemical processes in the Rwenzori Mountains (Uganda- Democratic Republic of Congo) by comparing sedimentological (organic and siliciclastic component determined by loss-on-ignition; LOI) and organic geochemical profiles (carbon and nitrogen abundance, ratio, and isotopic composition of sedimentary organic matter) from lakes occupying presently glaciated catchments against similar profiles from lakes located in catchments lacking glaciers. The siliciclastic content of sediments in the ‘glacial lakes’ significantly decreases towards the present, whereas ‘non-glacial lakes’ generally show weak trends in their siliciclastic content over time, demonstrating that changes in the siliciclastic content of glacial lake sediments primarily record fluctuations in glacier extent. Radiometric dating of our sediment cores indicates that prior to their late 19th-century recession Rwenzori glaciers stood at expanded ‘Little Ice Age’ positions for several centuries under a regionally dry climate regime, and that recession was underway by 1870 AD, during a regionally wet episode. These findings suggest that the influence of late 19th century reductions in precipitation in triggering Rwenzori glacier recession is weaker than previously thought. Our organic geochemical data indicate that glacier retreat has significantly affected carbon cycling in Afroalpine lakes, but trends in aquatic ecosystem functioning are variable among lakes and require more detailed analysis.  相似文献   

基于全球剖分模型的遥感影像变化区域表达和分发     

郭辉  程承旗  迟占福 《地理与地理信息科学》2009,25(6)

很多遥感影像应用的情况下,用户需要及时获取最新的影像,其中优先级最高的应是影像的变化区域;对于那些没有变化或变化不重要的区域,则没有必要立刻传输最新时相的影像.根据上述思路,基于地图分幅拓展的全球剖分模型,利用剖分面片管理多时相的影像数据,并将其中的变化区域表达为最小外包面片(MBC)的集合.影像更新时只需传输变化区域MBC集合中的影像面片,从而减少影像更新时的数据传输负担.该文实现了影像分发平台,对MBC方法进行了验证,试验表明利用MBC进行影像变化区域表达能够满足降低数据传输负担的要求.  相似文献   

Drought characteristics of Henan province in 1961-2013 based on Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index     

Benlin Shi  Xinyu Zhu  Yunchuan Hu  Yanyan Yang 《地理学报(英文版)》2017,27(3):311-325

Drought is one of the most complex natural hazards affecting agriculture, water resources, natural ecosystems, and society. The negative societal consequences of drought include severe economic losses, famine, epidemics, and land degradation. However, few studies have analyzed the complexity of drought characteristics, both at multiple time scales and with variations in evapotranspiration. In this study, drought occurrences were quantified using a new drought index, the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), based on observed data of monthly mean temperature and precipitation from 1961 to 2013 in Henan province, central China. Based on the SPEI values of each weather station in the study, the frequency and severity of meteorological droughts were computed, and the monthly, seasonal, and annual drought frequency and intensity over a 53-year period were analyzed. The spatial and temporal evolution, intensity, and the primary causes of drought occurrence in Henan were revealed. The results showed that the SPEI values effectively reflected the spatial and temporal pattern of drought occurrence. As the time scale decreased, the amplitude of the SPEI increased and droughts became more frequent. Since 1961, drought has occurred at the annual, seasonal, and monthly scales, and the occurrence of drought has increased. However, regional distribution has been uneven. The highest drought frequency, 35%, was observed in the Zhoukou region, while the lowest value, ~26%, was measured in central and western Henan. The most severe droughts occurred in the spring and summer, followed by autumn. Annually, wide-ranging droughts occurred in 1966–1968, 1998–2000, and 2011–2013. The drought intensity showed higher values in north and west Henan, and lower values in its east and south. The maximum drought intensity value was recorded in Anyang, and the minimum occurred in Zhumadian, at 22.18% and 16.60%, respectively. The factors with the greatest influence on drought occurrence are increasing temperatures, the Eurasian atmospheric circulation patterns, and the El Niño effect.  相似文献   

华南地区5月降水的水汽特征分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

于波  林永辉  陈菊英  乔林  翟亮  冯立成 《气候与环境研究》2014,19(4):507-514

利用国家气候中心的降水资料及NCEP/NCAR再分析资料、NOAA海温资料分析了华南地区5月降水的主要水汽通道及变异机制。发现异常多雨年的水汽主要来自南海、孟加拉湾和青藏高原南侧;异常少雨年则因西太平洋副热带高压(简称副高)偏东,来自南海的水汽缺失,只有来自孟加拉湾和高原南侧的两股水汽,因而南海的水汽是影响华南地区5月降水的重要因素。分析发现当北太平洋的准东西向海温异常是"负正负"分布时,南海地区为异常的反气旋性环流,有利于副高西伸加强;北太平洋海温距平为"正负正"异常分布时,南海地区为异常的气旋性环流,副高东退减弱。此外,北方南下冷空气的阻挡使得季风北界位置偏南,冷空气和季风在华南地区交汇导致5月降水异常增多。  相似文献   

基于多种探测资料对武汉一次短时暴雪天气的监测分析   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

李德俊  唐仁茂  向玉春  柳草  陈英英  徐桂荣 《高原气象》2012,31(5):1386-1392

利用Thies Clima激光雨滴谱仪、MP3000A微波辐射仪、多普勒雷达和人工加密观测资料,分析了2011年2月12日武汉一次暴雪天气过程的演变特征。结果表明:(1)在这次短时暴雪过程中,先后出现了降雨、雨夹雪和纯降雪3个阶段,激光雨滴谱仪监测到该降雨阶段的雨滴谱较宽,最大直径达4.5mm,数浓度比较小,为2～5 429个.m-3.mm-1,雨滴谱型呈双峰型分布特点;(2)微波辐射仪对水汽相态监测显示,08:12-09:34(世界时)期间在1.5～3.5km过冷层比湿维持14～16g.kg-1大值区,之后迅速由雨夹雪过程(仅16min)过渡到纯降雪阶段,在65min内武汉站降雪量达到5.035mm,占整个降雪量的80%以上;(3)雷达反射率因子与粒子谱宽和数浓度密切相关,若后两者越大则对应的雷达回波强度也越大;同时还发现,与微波辐射仪反演的水汽密度、激光雨滴谱仪测得的降水强度也有较好的对应关系,若将这些结合起来对降水的相态变化、强度、量级和持续时间有很好的监测能力。  相似文献   

近50年新疆气温和降水量变化及其与NAO指数的交叉小波谱分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

张延伟  魏文寿  姜逢清  刘明哲  王雯雯  白磊  韩茜  洪雯  陆恒  李雪梅 《高原气象》2012,31(4):974-982

利用1961—2008年的逐日降水和气温资料,采用线性趋势、小波功率谱和交叉小波谱等方法分析了新疆降水和气温的变化,以及与北大西洋涛动(NAO)变化之间的关系。结果表明,近50年新疆存在降水增多和气温上升的趋势,有暖湿化现象,这与西北地区由暖干趋于暖湿的结论相一致。同时,新疆平均年降水量与NAO存在准2年和准6年周期,夏季降水量与NAO存在准3年和准5年周期,冬季降水量与NAO存在准3年周期。新疆年均气温与NAO存在准3年周期,夏季气温与NAO存在准3年周期,冬季气温与NAO存在准3年和准8年周期。新疆全年、冬季和夏季的降水与NAO的周期中,通过显著性检验的高值正相关大多集中在20世纪80年代;而气温与NAO的周期中,通过显著性检验的高值正相关也大多集中在80年代。  相似文献   

遥感估算降水在西藏高原中的应用研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

王敏  周才平  吴良  张戈丽  欧阳华 《高原气象》2012,31(5):1215-1224

采用遥感估算降水模型RFE 2.0(Rainfall Estimation Algorithm Version 2)模拟了2009年西藏高原的区域降水,并结合该地区气象站降水观测资料分别从日、月、年尺度上评价了该模型在西藏高原降水估算中的适用性,最后通过系数校正分析了2009年8月西藏高原降水量和年降水量的分布格局。结果表明,RFE2.0模型日降水量模拟值与观测值的相关系数在0.40以上的测站占46%,变化趋势较一致,但在日降水量较小时(接近零)模拟结果不稳定,在降水量较大时(>15mm)模拟结果一般会偏低;月平均降水量模拟结果与观测结果的相关系数在0.80以上的测站占62%,模拟结果较好地反映了观测结果的变化趋势,但个别月份的模拟结果会出现偏差。雨季降水量的模拟结果明显好于干季,为进一步提高模拟精度,确定雨季校正系数为1.133,干季校正系数为1.265;年尺度上降水量的模拟值与观测值的相关系数为0.368(P=0.026)。整体来看,遥感估算降水模型(RFE2.0)模拟的西藏高原降水结果较好,可为西藏高原降水模拟提供借鉴和参考。  相似文献   

多模式集合预估21世纪淮河流域气候变化情景   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

李秀萍  徐宗学  程华琼 《高原气象》2012,31(6):1622-1635

利用政府间气候变化委员会第四次评估报告(the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergov-ernmental Panel on Climate Change,IPCC AR4)的14个全球气候耦合模式对中国淮河流域气温和降水的模拟能力进行了评估,预估了该地区21世纪的降水和气温变化。同时,还分析了14个气候模式对1961-1999年气温和降水的模拟能力,并且根据Taylor方法选取具有较好模拟能力的模式做集合分析。结果表明,不同的气候模式对淮河流域的气温和降水都具有一定的模拟能力,但大多数模式模拟的气温偏低、降水偏多;选取的模式集合可以明显改善模式的模拟能力,但是没有表现出明显的优势。对淮河流域降水和气温未来情景的预估表明,各模式给出的情景结果尽管存在一定的差异,但模拟的21世纪气候变化的趋势基本一致,即气温持续增加,降水出现区域性增加;还重点分析了14个模式集合的结果在2010-2039年、2040-2069年和2070-2099年3个时段的年平均、季节平均降水和气温变化及其时空变化特征,结果表明,3个时段的气温和降水在不同情景下都是逐渐增加的,A2情景下增幅最显著,B1情景下增幅最小。  相似文献   

近50年疏勒河流域山区的气候变化及其对出山径流的影响   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

蓝永超  胡兴林  肖生春  文军  王国亚  邹松兵  喇承芳  宋洁 《高原气象》2012,31(6):1636-1644

利用祁连山区水文站和气象站的观测数据,分析了近50年河西走廊西部疏勒河流域山区的气候变化及其对出山径流的影响。结果表明,受全球变暖的影响,疏勒河山区气候持续向暖湿转化,且各季气温均呈持续的上升趋势,山区降水量总体上亦呈增加趋势,年际波动比较剧烈。在各季降水量中,除夏季外其他各季降水量的增加比较显著,海拔3 000m以上中高山地带夏季降水量变化不大,3 000m以下中低山地带夏季降水量略有减少。受山区降水,尤其是3 000m以下中低山地带的降水量显著增加与气温上升所引起的冰雪融水补给的影响,疏勒河出山径流呈持续的增加趋势。由于夏季降水量并未增加,在年径流总量中所占比重最大的夏季径流量的增加主要是由于气温上升所引起的冰雪融水补给的增加所致。  相似文献